Positive U.S. Employment Trend Predicted For Quarter 3 2014
Posted by Heidi Schwartz
The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, recently released by ManpowerGroup, reflects continued hiring confidence among U.S. employers for Quarter 3 2014, as U.S. employers report a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of +14%. This is the strongest Net Employment Outlook since Quarter 2 2008, when the Outlook was also +14%. The third quarter Outlook is up from +13% in Quarter 2 2014 and from +12% during Quarter 3 2013.
Globally, staffing levels are expected to increase in 37 of 42 countries and territories surveyed, compared with 38 of 42 in the previous quarter. More than 65,000 employers were interviewed worldwide, with the most optimistic Net Employment Outlooks reported in India, Taiwan, Turkey, New Zealand, and Singapore. The weakest — and only negative — outlooks are reported in Italy, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic.
U.S. Results Summary
Of the more than 18,000 U.S. employers surveyed, 22% anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 3 2014 hiring plans, while anticipated staff reductions remain among the lowest in survey history at 4%. Seventy-one percent of employers expect no change in their hiring plans. The final 3% of employers are undecided about their hiring intentions, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +18%. When seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook becomes +14%.
“We’re seeing a measured level of improvement across all labor segments that has been building over the last five years,” said ManpowerGroup CEO Jonas Prising. “While dramatic jumps in hiring are uncommon, we continue to see a slow, yet steady, increase in demand for talent from our clients as they take a holistic approach in rebuilding their employee base.”
U.S. Hiring Plans by Regions, Industry Sectors and States/Metro Areas
The third quarter research shows that U.S. employers expect hiring intentions to remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter across all regions, and slightly increase compared to one year ago at this time. Employers have a positive Outlook in all 13 industry sectors included in the survey, with Mining, Wholesale & Retail Trade and Leisure & Hospitality employers reporting the strongest hiring intentions.
Among the 50 states, employers in North Dakota, Delaware, Michigan, Minnesota, Alaska, and Idaho indicate the strongest Net Employment Outlooks, while New Mexico, Mississippi, Kansas, Nevada, Illinois, and Florida project the weakest Outlooks.
Among employers in the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas, the strongest job prospects are expected in:
- Grand Rapids, MI
- Charleston, SC
- Raleigh, NC
- Rochester, NY
The weakest Outlooks are projected in:
- Cape Coral
- St. Louis
- New York
Global Results Summary
- During the July-September timeframe, staffing levels are expected to increase in 37 of the 42 countries and territories surveyed. This compares with 38 of 42 in the previous quarter.
- The most optimistic Net Employment Outlooks are reported in India, Taiwan, Turkey, New Zealand, and Singapore, while the weakest — and only negative — outlooks are reported in Italy, Belgium, France, Netherlands, and the Czech Republic.
- Employers in all 10 countries in the Americas expect to grow payrolls in the upcoming quarter, with the Net Employment Outlook improving in three countries and declining in seven. Year-over-year, hiring intentions are stronger in four countries and weaker in four. Employers in Peru report the most optimistic hiring plans in the region.
- Payrolls are expected to increase in all eight Asia Pacific countries and territories, with stronger Net Employment Outlooks reported in two and softer hiring prospects in five. The most optimistic hiring intentions are reported in India, while the weakest are reported in Australia for the eighth consecutive quarter.
- Employers in 19 of 24 Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) countries forecast job gains during the next three months, while payrolls are expected to decline in four countries. Hiring prospects improve in six EMEA countries quarter-over-quarter, but decrease in 12. As in the previous quarter, Turkish employers report the most optimistic hiring plans in the region, while for the fifth consecutive quarter; the weakest forecast is reported by employers in Italy.
“Opportunities for job seekers across global labor markets are expected to remain mostly positive with few signs that hiring intentions are decisively trending in one direction or another,” added Prising. “There are, however, encouraging signs in Europe, where employer confidence in Greece, Ireland and Spain continues to stabilize in the wake of a prolonged period of pessimistic, post-recession forecasts.”
*The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.