With warmer-than-normal temperatures expected to continue, the National Pest Management Association (NPMA) experts predict tick and mosquito populations will remain active through the fall season. However, temperature drops will result in a spike in rodent issues at the start of winter as these pests flock to homes and businesses in search of warmth and food sources. These predictions are revealed in NPMA’s bi-annual Bug Barometer®, which forecasts what Americans can expect from pest populations in their respective regions this fall and winter based on weather patterns, long-term forecasts, and pest biology.
“When it comes to pests, even the slightest fluctuations in temperature and precipitation can have a significant impact on their populations and activity,” said Dr. Jim Fredericks, Senior Vice President of Public Affairs at NPMA. “A warm and wet fall, for example, can allow disease-carrying pests like ticks and mosquitoes to remain active and breeding much longer than we’d typically expect and just a few cold nights can result in a significant uptick in rodent sightings in homes.”
NPMA’s Fall & Winter 2024 Bug Barometer® forecasts an increase in pest pressure across the U.S.:
“A warm and wet fall, for example, can allow disease-carrying pests like ticks and mosquitoes to remain active and breeding much longer than we’d typically expect and just a few cold nights can result in a significant uptick in rodent sightings in homes.”
— Dr. Jim Fredericks, Senior VP/Public Affairs, NPMA
Northeast & New England
Unseasonably warm temperatures could allow tick and mosquito populations to remain active further into the fall and winter months than normal. Expect the drop in temperature to increase rodent activity as they look to enter buildings in search of warmth and food.
Southeast
If the Southeast experiences unseasonably warm temperatures and above-average rainfall into the fall months, expect mosquito pressure to remain high until drier conditions arrive. Cockroaches and ants are likely to be a problem in and around buildings while favorable conditions persist.
Great Lakes, Ohio Valley & Midwest
Despite the potential for a mild start to fall across most of the region, expect the seasonal drop in temperatures to drive overwintering pests such as the brown marmorated stink bug and the multicolored Asian lady beetle indoors seeking shelter for the winter months. The Midwest may also see an increase in rodent pressure as these pests enter homes and businesses in search of shelter and food sources.
North Central U.S.
If warmer-than-average temperatures persist as predicted this fall, this region should prepare for increased tick activity. Despite the potential for a warm fall, the drop in winter temperatures is likely to cause a spike in rodent sightings.
South Central U.S.
An unseasonably warm fall could allow mosquitoes to remain active later into the year than usual, increasing the number of “mosquito days” experienced in the region. Drier-than-average conditions could drive other pests including cockroaches indoors looking for moisture until winter temperatures arrive.
Southwest U.S.
With forecasts calling for a mix of unpredictable conditions across the desert region, one pest prediction to prepare for is an increase in rodent activity in and around buildings this fall as temperatures drop and these pests search for warmth, food, and shelter.
Northwest U.S.
Above-average temperatures predicted could lead to an increase in tick activity later into the year. The mountain region can also expect an increase in rodent pressure sooner in the year if cold temperatures arrive unseasonably early.
Tips For Preventing Pest Problems
To help prevent pest problems this fall and winter, NPMA experts recommend keeping kitchens and food prep areas clean, storing food in airtight containers, and lifting boxes off the floor to avoid creating hiding spots for pests. Also, any cracks and holes on the exterior of the building should be sealed, torn screens repaired, and standing water or overgrown grass around the property eliminated.
