With winter on the horizon, U.S. businesses should anticipate a concurrent rise in flu, RSV, and COVID-19 this year, but expect that the onset of respiratory virus season will be closer to typical pre-pandemic timing than last year. In predictive analysis conducted for Reckitt’s Lysol Pro Solutions by data experts at BlueDot Inc, trends from the southern hemisphere’s winter months are explored—which can serve as an indicator for the northern hemisphere’s respiratory virus season that follows. The research found the following:
Flu Activity Is Likely To Be More Predictable
Last year the flu season began, on average, seven weeks earlier than pre-pandemic trends, making it harder for businesses to prepare. This year, signs from the southern hemisphere suggest that the flu season is trending towards pre-pandemic patterns. Businesses can therefore leverage this predictability to ensure they are ramping up protection measures with appropriate timing.
RSV Is On The Rise
Children in the southern hemisphere have already been affected by RSV in their winter season. The severe surge of infections led to significant hospitalizations in Chile, Brazil, and Uruguay. While RSV activity in the U.S. remains below epidemic threshold nationally, it has been increasing in southern regions since May 2023 based on PCR testing and reported cases. Businesses should prioritize helping to protect facilities against RSV—particularly those frequented by children, such as schools and daycare centers.
COVID-19 Activity Has Declined, But Expected To Increase
After a respite during the warmer months, a late summer wave of COVID-19 began in the southern U.S. workplaces, and schools as a result of COVID-19 combined with flu and RSV.
“Data from the southern hemisphere and early indicators from the U.S. suggest that we should anticipate a respiratory virus season more similar to pre-pandemic timing, but with a simultaneous rise in RSV and flu, in addition to the lingering threat of COVID-19,” said Dr. Andrea Thomas, Head of Epidemiology at BlueDot. “Businesses—particularly those that operate within high-risk settings such as schools and healthcare centers—should put in place interventions including ventilation, use of face masks, and encouraging vaccinations. We also have new medical countermeasures to protect the most vulnerable from severe outcomes of RSV, including vaccinations for seniors and one to be taken during pregnancy to protect infants, and an antibody treatment for infants.”